This detailed earthquake forecast covers the period October 2013-April 2014, which is considered as the effective period of the eclipses of autumn 2013 - a lunar on 19 October and a solar on 3 November. Quakes forecasted must be considered of magnitude more than 5.8 degrees on the Richter scale (M5.8>), yet in some cases events of a smaller magnitude may be hazardous, if they take place in overpopulated areas.
In part (I) the regions mostly endangered are cited. In part (II) the remaining spots of the globe. In the reference of coordinates I have tried to be as explicit as possible, but a margin of a few degrees should be allowed. A few longitudinal degrees can make a difference of some hundreds of kilometers in the placement of an event, especially if it happens near the equator, but greater accuracy in my method is very difficult.
I. 1. Astrologically, the Chinese chart is having some catastrophes when tr. Uranus opposes and tr. Pluto squares the 8th house Mercury and Neptune in 2014 and 2015. With this configuration, huge natural disasters are very probable in the country. I indicate below the areas in which strong earthquakes are likely to occur in the period under examination.
A. The eclipses of autumn 2013 will initiate a period which imperils the NW parts of the autonomous regions of Xinjiang and Tibet, along the 77-80E meridians. The seismic system of Tien-Shan includes the province Xinjiang and the territory of SE Kazakhstan. In this system, an earthquake of M>7.3 may occur. In the mean time, any moderate earthquake indicator with M6.2-6.4 can raise a stronger tremor with M6.7. Hazardous is the area near Kashi. By the same token, in the subsystem of Kyrgyzstan-South Kazakhstan, NE from Isyk Kol and about 100km east of Almaty, a quake of M6.5 should be expected. These regions are scarcely populated.
B. At the same time, tremors in the Quinghai province or in the western part of Sichuan are probable, no more than M5.5-6, yet enough to cause damages and fatalities in this densely populated country.
C. The seismic system of NE China includes the capital Beijing and its industrial provinces. This will be the most hazardous area of China in the two next years, where earthquakes-indicators of M5.8-6.0 or an atypical earthquake with M7.9 should be expected. Most dangerous are the West and the South of the province Hebei, the adjacent areas of Shandong and Henan, and the coastal areas of Shandong and Jiangsu, from Tianjin to Shanghai.
D. In the coastal area of South China, dangerous for a M6> seism is the area from Qinzhou to Hong Kong, particularly in the Gulf of Tonkin near Hainan Island.
2. The lunar eclipse of October exerts considerable tension on the Sagaing Faut, which extends vertically from North to South in the middle of Myanmar. For this reason, a strong temblor must be expected there, endangering the principal cities which are found along the 96E meridian. For the same reason, a mega-quake combined with tsunami, which will extend to the coastal countries of the Indian Ocean (Myanmar, Thailand and Bangladesh) can be prepared in 2014 around the Andaman-Nicobar islands in Bengal Bay.
The Sagaing fault separates the Arakan province from eastern Myanmar. Both the adjacent Kaladan and Kabaw faults are involved and a mega-quake there might bear upon the neighboring regions of Chittagong in Bangladesh and Mizoram in India. Therefore, in the triangle delimited by Chittagong, Yangoon and Adaman islands, the probability of a catastrophic earthquake (M7.8+) is high.
3. In Mexico, between provinces Guerrero and Michoakan (100W-16N), a powerful earthquake of M7.5+ should be expected. Nearest cities endangered are the capital Mexico city and Acapulco de Juarez. Guatemala and San Salvador (92W-14N) will be affected.
4. By a strong quake near the Puerto Rico Trench (76W-20N), the SW part of Cuba, Jamaica and Haiti may be imperiled.
5. The lunar eclipse of October 19 will initiate a very hazardous period for Turkey, during which one or more catastrophic quakes will occur. Initially, the Anatolian fault near 35E will be activated. The coastal area of the Black Sea (32E-42N) along with the region of Tuz Golu seem to be menaced in the beginning. At the same time in the Antalya Basin (35E-35N), near the triple junction of the Eurasian, African and Arabic plates, a deep focus seismic event is probable. Then, in 2014, at the east segment of the North Anatolian Fault, between 35-45E, a catastrophic earthquake with M7.5+ might occur, most probably near the city of Erzincan. The rupture of such quake may extend from the North Anatolian Fault to the west, activating the westernmost part of the fault.
Thus, in Greece at a distance of 200km around the 25E meridian at the Aegean Sea, a M6+ seismic event which will be felt in Athens is very probable and the country is threatened on its both maritime sides (see below).
6. The bordering region of Bosnia-Herzegovina to Serbia, and Montenegro along the 19E meridian (nearby capital cities Sarajevo, Belgrade and Podgoritsa), also the littoral zone of Albania in the Adriatic and the Ionian Islands in Greece are jeopardized. This is a system where earthquakes with magnitudes of M6.5 may be reckoned as mega-quakes and cause extensive damage.
By the same token, in southern Italy, the probability of a strong earthquake is high. In Calabria, following a shallow (H<40km) earthquake of M5.6, a stronger of M6-7 may occur.
Also a deep focus (250km<H<350km) quake with M7.0 is possible in the Ionian Sea, at the border region of Italy-Greece, but this seems not dangerous as the danger for a tsunami from such earthquakes is negligible.
7. India, in the region of Guzarat (70E-24N) and Pakistan, (69E-30N), near Quetta.
8. The central part of Afghanistan between 66-68E meridians and Uzbekistan in the province of Bukhara (64E-41N).
9. The aforesaid activation of the northern segment of the Anatolia fault also exposes the Turkey-Iran border region near Tabriz.
10. In the neighboring regions of Turkey, Armenia and Georgia, activation of moderate earthquakes with 5.0<M<5.6 should be expected. If this happens, they can provoke a stronger earthquake of M6.3 in South Georgia, near Rustavi (45E-42N).
11. Colombia, along the 73W meridian, where the capital Bogota may be affected. Additionally, the mountainous regions of Bolivia and Brazil, along the 67W Meridian, will yield earthquakes which may be felt in the cities La Paz, Sucre and Oruro in Bolivia and the provinces of Jujuy, Salta and Tucuman in Brazil.
12. In Japan, offshore the islands Shikoku and Kyushu (133E-32N) the probability for an M6.8+ earthquake followed by a tsunami alert, is high.
13. Around the Lake Baykal in Russia (Irkutsk oblast), an earthquake of M7+ can be prepared for the beginning of 2014.
14. On the SW part of Java, in the Java Trench (107E-10S) an M6-7 should be expected.
II. There are some usually seismogenic regions, which give quakes of considerable magnitude, yet mostly innocuous. I define below the coordinates of those areas. The oceanic regions of the Atlantic and the Pacific below the 50S latitude have not been examined.
- At the western part of the Cascadian Basin (125W-45N) and the Blanco Fracture zone of Juan de Fuga plate (126W-42N). In this case there will be a tsunami alert for the area from Portland to Sacramento.
- At the east Pacific rise, near the junction of Cocos and Nazcar plates (102W-3N)
- Near Galapagos Islands (88W-2N)
- At the Chile Rise (102W-36S and 77W-46S)
- At the Aleutian Arc (162W-54N and 176W-52N)
- Near Kamchatka Peninsula, in the oceanic zone of the Kamchatka arc and the Aleutian trench (167E-55N)
- In the Pacific, near Nauru (168E-1S), Marshal Islands (172E-6S) French Polynesia Islands (142W-21S) and Marquesas Islands (140W-10S)
- At the periphery of the Ring of Fire: in Indonesia (133E-3N) near Santa Cruz Islands (163E-11S) Solomon Islands (163E-10S) Vanuatu (167E-17S) New Caledonia (168E-21S) and Kermadec Islands (177E-31S)
- South of N. Zealand (167E-47S) and Auckland Islands (165E-51S)
- At the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (48W-16N)
- Azores (29W-40N and 13W-37N), probably combined with a tsunami alert.
Certainly, all these areas shall not be shaken, but the significant quakes of October 2013 through April 2014 will take place in the regions indicated above.
Eclipses of autumn will take place in the fiery way of the Moon (via combusta) which spans the arc 15° Libra to 15° Scorpio of the tropical zodiac. Consequently, the earthquakes of autumn 2013 through spring 2014 will occur when the Moon conjoins, squares or opposes this arc. In other words, in the 2-3 days when it is moving into the last 15° of the cardinal and the first 15° of the fixed signs, and a few days later. This holds true until February 2014, when Mars, reaching the degree of the lunar eclipse, will time the events which will take place in the last three months of the period examined. Specifically, these days and the 2-3 following are to watch: October 5, 12, 18 - November 3, 9, 16, 24 - December 1, 6, 13, 21, 28 - January 3, 9, 17, 24, 31 - February 6, 13, 21, 27 - March 5, 13, 20, 26 - April 2, 7, 9, 15, 22, 29.
April 18 update
Important events predicted in this article:
2014-04-04 M6.0 Solomon Islands 11°S 162°E / 2014-03-26 M6.5 Kermadec Islands 27°S 180°E / 2014-03-21 M6.5 Nicobar islands 8°N 95°E / 2014-03-13 M6.3 between islands Shikoku and Kyushu, Japan 34°N 132°E / 2014-03-10 M6.9 Juan de Fuga plate, offshore California 41°N 126°W / 2014-03-05 M6.3 Vanuatu 15°S 170°E / 2014-03-02 M6.5 Japan 28°N 128°E / 2014-03-02 M6.2 Nicaragua 13°N 88°W / 2014-02-26 M6.1 Aleutian Trench 54°N 172°W / 2014-02-17 M5.7 Colombia 7°N 72°W / 2014-02-12 M6.9 Border of Xinjiang province with Tibet, China 36°N 83°E / 2014-02-07 M6.5 Vanuatu 16°S 168°E / 2014-02-03 M6.1 Lixourion, Greece 39°N 21°E / 2014-02-02 M6.5 Kermadec Islands 33°S 178°W / 2014-01-26 M6 Lixourion, Greece 39°N 21°E / 2014-01-25 M6.1 SW of Java 8°S 110°E / 2014-01-13 M6.4 Puerto Rico 20°N 67°W / 2014-01-09 M5.8 Solomon Islands 12°S 167°E / 2014-01-01 M6.6 Vanuatu 14°S 168°E / 2013-12-28 M5.8 Turkey 36°N 32°E / 2013-12-04 M5.8 Kermadec Islands 26°S 179°E / 2013-11-19 M6.3 Indonesia 3°N 129°E / 2013-11-13 M5.8 Aleutian arc 52°N 179°W / 2013-11-12 M6.6 Kamchatka Peninsula 55°N 163°E / 2013-10-12 M6.4 Crete, Greece 36°N 24°E / 2013-10-11 M6.3 Kermadec Islands 31°S 179°W / 2014-04-12 M7.6 Solomon Islands, 12°S 163°E, and 2014-04-13, M7.5 and 2014-04-18 M6.0, 12°S 165°E / 2014-04-18 M7.2, Guerrero, Mexico 18°N 101°W